A New South Africa

COUNTING THE COST

By: Stuart Farrow MP

The DA recently used a parliamentary question to ask the minister of transport how big the country’s road infrastructure backlog was – nationally and by province. The answer that came back was a staggering R72 billion, and little or no hope (on the part of the state) of it being eradicated in the near future.

Remember that there is a broader context when it comes to questions about the state of the country’s infrastructure. Eskom CEO Jacob Maroga has estimated that the power utility will have to spend R1.3 trillion on new capacity up to 2025, much of which is due to years of neglect and under-spending by the state. Elsewhere, the Railway Commuter Corporation recently told the transport portfolio committee that it needed R25 billion to overcome its infrastructure backlog. In short, almost every element of South Africa’s physical infrastructure has been grossly neglected by the ANC government. And we are only now beginning to count the cost.

But let us look at the road backlog in more detail. Here is how that R72 billion breaks down by province: Western Cape (R10 billion); Northern Cape (R5.8 billion); Mpumalanga (R7.5 billion); Eastern Cape (R8.1 billion); KwaZulu-Natal (R5.9 billion); Free State (R8.5 billion); Limpopo (R4.4 billion); North West (R3.5 billion) and, last but by no means least, Gauteng (R18.3 billion).

Among the nine provinces, R5.2 billion has been allocated to address the backlog in the 2008/09 financial year (a shortfall of some R66 billion), which is hardly enough, and suggests that the government has misunderstood the extent of the problem. Because the R72 billion backlog is not for maintenance or repair work; rather, it is the estimated cost of replacement – as our country’s road network reaches the end of its lifespan.

Put another way – every year the problem is not countered, the size of the backlog grows, as an increasing number of roads reach the end of their lifespan and require more and more upkeep. Were the DA to ask the same question next year (which we will do) and despite the R5.2 billion invested this year, the size the problem will, no doubt, still have grown substantially. (Significantly, the price of bitumem – the primary substance used to tar roads – is linked to the oil price and is also increasing substantially year-on-year, from R900 per ton in 1998 to R3 000 per ton in 2006/07.)

The evidence for this is presented by the provinces themselves. Take Gauteng by way of illustration.

Gauteng has by far the largest backlog – R18.3 billion – and the province has allocated R960 million for the upkeep of its provincial roads in 2008/09. Yet, in response to the question “how long will it take to eradicate the backlog”, its answer was bleak: “At current funding levels the backlog will not be eradicated and maintenance costs will escalate rapidly due the cost of maintaining an ageing road network (82% of the roads are older than the designed life of 20 years).” Significantly, it goes on to state: “If funding is available, it would be possible to eliminate the backlog within five years.”

This situation is reflected in almost every other province. The Western Cape states that, at current funding levels, the backlog will not be eradicated “in the medium to long term”. The Eastern Cape estimates it needs R2 billion to be allocated to the problem annually (it allocated R420 million in 2008/09) and the Free State R2.1 billion (it allocated R982 million) if the problem is to be overcome. Mpumalanga, KwaZulu-Natal, North West, the Northern Cape and Limpopo all agree with the Western Cape – that, at current funding levels, the problem will not be dealt with in the medium or long term.

That is with regards to provincial roads. At national level, there is a substantial problem too. The South African National Roads Agency (SANRAL) is currently responsible for some 16 000 km of roads, out of a total of some 754 000 km, (when it was established in 1998, it was only responsible for 6 700km – a sign that it is increasingly having to take on provincial competencies) of which it estimates that some 4 103 km need strengthening over the next five to seven years. In other words, one out of every four kilometres managed by SANRAL will need substantial maintenance over the next five years.

So, what can be done? As part of the problem is clearly the amount of money allocated, the state (and specifically the provinces) need to be able to calculate the extent of the problem. The R72 billion figure given in response to the DA’s question is a static one. Before proper funding can be allocated, the state needs to generate a projected figure for each year, taking into account the depreciation of the road network. This way it becomes possible to plan ahead – to know how much must be budgeted each year, first and foremost, to stop the growth of the backlog.

Second, following on from this, the treasury needs to introduce a temporary measure whereby provinces are required to spend a minimum amount of their transport budget on roads. This amount should be ring-fenced, so that it can only be spent on roads- it could be done in the form of a conditional grant. Obviously, this minimum figure would be generated by the analysis suggested above. In the same way that the treasury has dealt with the country’s debt, it needs to deal with our infrastructure backlog, we need careful planning, regular budget allocations of a meaningful size and strict discipline in ensuring the money is properly spent.

Third, a number of provinces have linked transport to public works (i.e. they operate under one ministry) – they need to be unbundled to that there is a dedicated staff concerned only with public transport.

AUTHOR: Stuart Farrow is the is the DA’s national spokesperson on Transport. This article may be republished without prior consent but with acknowledgement to the author. The views expressed in the article are the author’s and are not necessarily shared by the Democratic Alliance.